Index heavyweights continue to be top losers with ICICI bank.
Regarding employment, the manufacturing sector hiring remained broadly unchanged.
A reality check on the India vs China growth story.
Firms hired additional hands to keep up with the production demand
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
During March, the rate of inflation slowed to the weakest in four months and was below the long-run survey average
The domestic equity market, which is on a record-breaking spree, will focus on macroeconomic data announcements, movement in global stocks and the US Fed minutes to get further direction, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also innfluence investors.From the domestic macroeconomic front, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector will be released on Monday, and that o,f the services sector on Wednesday. Investors, this week, will keenly watch major global market events, icluding the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, scheduled to be out on Wednesday.
The Wall Street major Morgan Stanley has upgraded India to "standout overweight" citing that the relative economic and earnings growth is improving and the macro-stability setup looks sufficient to withstand the higher real rate environment. "India remains standout overweight. "We increase our overweight stance on Indian equities and as our most-preferred emerging market," the brokerage said in a note on Friday.
NSE Nifty finished higher by 46.05 points, or 0.39 per cent, at 11,707.90. Asian Paints was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying 6.32 per cent, followed by Nestle India, HUL, Bajaj Auto, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Maruti and PowerGrid.
Services sector activities in India picked up marginally in February on the back of better demand conditions and the retreat of the coronavirus pandemic but the rate of expansion was the second-slowest since last July and subdued by historical standards, according to a monthly survey. Reflecting a moderate rate of expansion, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index rose to 51.8 in February from 51.5 in January. "The upturn was attributed by panellists to greater bookings, better demand conditions and the retreat of the pandemic. "That said, the latest increase was subdued by historical standards, with some companies indicating that growth was dampened by competitive pressures, COVID-19 and higher prices," the survey released on Friday said.
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
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The subdued labour market is likely to recover.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors, outcome of state elections and RBI's interest rate decision are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "Global markets are currently in a fabulous mood. The US 10-year bond yield and the dollar index are also cooling off, which gives strength to the market. These factors will be closely monitored, as they have the potential to influence market sentiment," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd. On the political front, the results of assembly elections in five states are eagerly anticipated, Gour said.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised its forecast for India's economic growth to 6.3 per cent for current fiscal year 2023-24 from 6 per cent it had predicted previously. This is primarily because of a stronger outturn in the first quarter and near-term momentum. The growth forecast compares with 7.2 per cent GDP expansion in FY23. In the previous fiscal year (FY22), the economy had grown 9.1 per cent.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP growth estimate to 12.8 per cent for the fiscal year beginning April 1 from its previous estimate of 11 per cent, saying its recovery from the depths of the lockdown-induced recession has been swifter than expected. In its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), Fitch said revision is on the back of "a stronger carryover effect, a looser fiscal stance and better virus containment." "India's second half of 2020 rebound also took GDP back above its pre-pandemic level and we have revised up our 2021-2022 forecast to 12.8 per cent from 11.0 per cent," it said. "Nevertheless, we expect the level of Indian GDP to remain well below our pre-pandemic forecast trajectory."
The Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index, which tracks the services sector firms on a monthly basis, stood at 50.3 in February, up from 48.7 registered in January.
India's manufacturing sector activity was largely flat in April, as rates of growth for new orders and output eased to eight-month lows amid the intensification of the COVID-19 crisis, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 55.5 in April, little changed from March's reading of 55.4. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
India, the world's fifth largest economy in the world, is likely to overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy with a GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest issue of PMI. After two years of rapid economic growth in 2021 and 2022, the Indian economy has continued to show sustained strong growth during the 2023 calendar year. India's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.2-6.3 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024, being the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year.
BSE Bankex and Telecom indices led the fall.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends and macroeconomic data announcements in a holiday-shortened week which may see volatility amid monthly derivatives expiry, say analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Gurunanak Jayanti. Trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be tracked by investors.
In the broader market, the S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices added 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively to touch their fresh lifetime highs.
India's manufacturing sector activity witnessed a significant loss of growth momentum in May due to the intensification of the COVID-19 crisis and its detrimental impact on demand, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), fell to 50.8 in May, down from 55.5 in April, as companies observed the slowest rises in new work and output in ten months amid intensification of the COVID-19 crisis. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Manufacturers indicated that the ongoing relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions, better market conditions and improved demand helped them to secure new work in October.
The Indian services sector expanded at the strongest rate in 12 years in February supported by favourable demand conditions and new business gains, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.2 in January to 59.4 in February -- its highest level in 12 years. For the 19th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
With factory production, activities across the private sector saw the biggest drop in over three years
The new orders sub-index, which includes domestic demand as well as orders from abroad, rose to 53.2 in May
India's services sector growth accelerated in April, as strong demand conditions resulted in the fastest increase in new business and output in close to 13 years, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The pick-up in demand occurred in spite of escalating price pressures. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.8 in March to 62.0 in April, signalling the fastest expansion in output since mid 2010, amid a pick-up in new business growth and favourable market conditions.
Domestic equity markets will be driven mainly by quarterly earnings, global trends, and the movement in crude oil prices in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Investors would also keep an eye on the Middle East amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict and the trading activity of foreign investors. Markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Dussehra.
The Indian services sector growth touched a six-month high in December, supported by a robust intake of new work and favourable market conditions, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 56.4 in November to 58.5 in December, highlighting the strongest rate of expansion since mid-2022. For the 17th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold.
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 58.9 in October to a three-month low of 56.3 in November, indicating that the manufacturing sector growth remained strong, despite losing traction.
The NSE Nifty gained 77.85 points, or 0.71 per cent, to finish at 11,008.30. Intra-day, it shuttled between 10,821.55 and 11,035.65.
The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers Index for the services industry fell to 46.7 in December from 47.2 in November, registering the sixth consecutive monthly drop in output levels, the longest period of continuous reduction since the 2008/2009 global financial crisis.
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising nearly 6 per cent, followed by Axis Bank, SBI, Maruti, Tech Mahindra and Reliance Industries. NSE Nifty surged 183.70 points to close at 17,166.90.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said there were visible signs of revival in the economy but the GDP growth may be in the negative zone or near zero in the current fiscal.
Share markets will have only three trading days this week with Monday and Wednesday being holidays due to general elections in Mumbai and Maharashtra Day, respectively.
India's private sector activity contracted further in August, reflecting faster contractions of both manufacturing and services output, amid decline in new orders and tough economic conditions.
The HSBC/Markit purchasing managers index for the services industry inched up to 47.1 in October from 44.6 in September, the fourth successive monthly contraction of service sector output across India.
IndusInd Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, zooming over 12 per cent, followed by Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv and Kotak Bank. On the other hand, ITC, NTPC, Titan, Reliance Industries and ONGC were the laggards.
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
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